Strategy
Possibility of a brokered convention?
I agree that this is a real possibility on the GOP side. Mike Tomasky discusses how it might arise on the Democratic side.
Strategy
Thoughts on Fred Thompson
I have been struggling to really articulate my thoughts on a Fred Thompson candidacy, but here’s a go. This was, to some extent, precipitated by a conversation yesterday afternoon, this post of Michael Turk, and Thompson’s interview with John Fund. First, there has been a push for a candidate because Read more…
Strategy
Allard endorses Romney; Romney seals another caucus state
Mitt Romney just announced the endorsement of retiring Colorado Senator Wayne Allard. Romney has signed up huge amounts of the Colorado GOP establishment and Allard’s main issue is gay marriage, so this is no surprise. But the question is why Colorado? Here’s one thought. Perhaps Romney is trying to seal Read more…
Strategy
Is Romney bracketing McCain?
Much earlier in the campaign, John McCain would spoil Mitt Romney’s events (here and here). Now, I wonder if Romney is doing it to McCain. Two weeks ago, McCain announced three policy speeches. Last week was Iraq. Today is the economic. Later on, there will be domestic policy. So, last Read more…
Strategy
Rudy on how he wins
"In a loud voice" that perhaps reporters weren’t supposed to hear, Rudy Giuliani says that the social conservatives will be split and that he will form a coalition of the remainder: In a voice loud enough to be overheard on the other side of the room, he outlined his view Read more…
Strategy
What do the March polls say? What do they mean?
Almost all the big polls are now out, along with some important analysis. So let me dive right in.
There are clearly three tiers of candidates from the polls. The picture at the right from Gallup clearly points these tiers out. First is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. They have similar likability, and in recent weeks, it appears that Rudy has taken support from McCain in the polls. The second is Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Both of these candidates appear to have relatively high "unfavorables" and even large numbers of Republicans who do not want them to be the nominee. And the third tier is people who no one has heard of. These are Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, etc.
Now, these differ from the conventional wisdom in Washington that places John McCain first, Rudy Giuliani second, and Mitt Romney third. Another poll found that Romney is leading about Republican National Committee members. So there is a clear disconnect between the opinions of "insiders" and the opinions of the masses. What is going on and how do the various campaigns understand these polls?
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Strategy
Can the Romney Rehab plan get him back on the wagon?
The Mitt Romney team, recognizing that the wheels were coming off the train, told the Politico what their plans were. I have a little review of the plan First, according to Roger Simon, they want to "game the system". At least as reported to Simon, focusing on the long-ago-settled CA Read more…
Strategy
Romney begins desperate attacks
Tanking in the polls and underperforming in straw polls, Mitt Romney goes on the attack!
Strategy
Advice to Romney: Don’t attack Rudy
I don’t watch TV much, so I miss a lot of stuff. But Kavon Nikrad at Race4 2008 notices that Rudy Giuliani’s campaign thinks that Mitt Romney is preparing to whack them. To do so would be a big, big mistake. Rudy is a hero. It will slime Rudy, but Read more…
Media
Season starting too early? For whom?
Yesterday the Politico published an interesting article about an interview with Karl Rove. The emphasis of the article was: "I think it is going to mean that people develop a persona earlier and wear out their welcome earlier than they would," he told The Politico in an interview. "I think Read more…