A number of people have asked me what I think of Jon Chait’s TNR article, "The Left’s New Machine." Here are my thoughts. I just finished reading Kos and Armstrong’s Barbarians at the Gates this morning. So I may merge some thoughts together. First of all, this has tended to Read more…
Ok, now I have argued that electability will matter in this election. And early polls only matter a little. But the new Diageo/Hotline poll, via Pollster.com, should terrify Republicans: Clinton Obama Edwards Rudy Giuliani +4 -9 -6 John McCain 0 -11 -11 That is, Rudy Giuliani is beating Clinton Read more…
I have been and continue to be a Fred Thompson skeptic. Not so much about him, per se, but about his candidacy. On Friday, the day after the Presidential Debate, Thompson spoke to the Orange County Lincoln Club. Here’s the video: Several things struck me, as they relate to Thompson, Read more…
Amongst the top three, I agree with Jim Geraghty, Erick from Redstate, Quin Hillyer, and Paul Mirengoff. McCain won today. Of the big three, he moved forward. I am not sure about Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Romney struggled with flip-flopping. I think that he could be brutalized in the Read more…
So, Romney mispronounces al-Maliki…. Brownback sounded quite good. He is articulate. Too bad he doesn’t stand a chance. McCain seems nervous. The Iran-Iraq fumble was a little awkward. Tancredo. Mr. "Bomb Mecca" And Giuliani drops the Reagan name… Romney flip-flops on Osama bin Laden. "of course" except not the other Read more…
Pew Research’s Andrew Kohut wrote an important essay yesterday. Some might argue that the horse race polls may reflect the old axiom that voters put more emphasis on the person than the party. While this is certainly true, the crucial personal dimension in a period of national discontent, is whether Read more…
First, of all, let me say that the recent ARG polls, strike me as a little weird. (I am suspicious of their likely voter model, especially in Iowa) My money is on these being outliers. Several things do occur to me though. First, the numbers: Republicans IA NH SC John Read more…
Gallup aggregated their March and April polls on the GOP field. There are several important breakdowns in the polls. In a variety of ways, these suggest several points: Rudy Giuliani’s support is strongest among moderates, younger age cohorts, and people who attend church the least. These are groups that the Read more…
Last week, I wrote about the Dems use of technology. On Tuesday, I learned about the Majority Accountability Project. One of the people at that presentation said something to the effect of, "This is the first good idea that narrows the gap between the right and left online." I think Read more…
As has been repeatedly noted, the primary calendar is strongly in flux. However, one of the most interesting questions is: what happens if New Hampshire moves up sharply, as I expect it will. Consider some facts: New Hampshire is committed (and empowered) to move up before, at least, Nevada, meaning Read more…