Yesterday, we saw Mitt Romney, the candidate of the establishment, the lobbyist class, the interest group class, etc., get rejected by the people of Iowa. David Brooks understands the broader implications, which I have also talked about: On the Republican side, my message is: Be not afraid. Some people are Read more…
I highly recommend the book How Congress Evolves by the late Nelson Polsby to any student or practitioner of politics. Polsby documents the interplay between Congressional rules, demographic shift, and partisan realignment. The essential fact was that Southern congressional districts fell to the Republicans as a result of southern migration Read more…
The loser was clearly the moderator. What was Alan Keyes doing there? But I thought that Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson did well. Interestingly, CNN and Fox both had dial focus groups. CNN had a Huckabee clip that he performed well on. Fox had Romney and Thompson. Probably Read more…
CBS News has been running an interesting series called "Primary Questions." They ask the candidates a variety of policy and personal questions. Sometimes this format seems closer to what we’d like from a debate in terms of clarifying policy differences. However, it doesn’t always result in the nice contrasting sound-bites that you might otherwise get.
| Giuliani | Huckabee | McCain | Romney | Thompson | |
| Human caused | yes | yes? | yes | yes | maybe |
| Cap-and-trade | yes | yes | |||
| Nuclear | yes | yes | yes | ||
| Must solve globally | yes |
Tonight, the candidates are answering the question: "Do you think the risks of climate change are at all overblown?" I have discussed the real-world politics (what real people actually think) and some of the beltway politics of the issue. It is clear in New Hampshire, at least, that Republicans think that global warming is an issue that the government must act on, even if it is one that is a low-priority for primary voters.
In the end, as I have said, I think that this is an issue that is more important as a credibility issue than a ballot issue. Very few people are going to vote on the specifics of plans on global warming. But people, including Republicans, are increasingly seeing this as an issue that candidates need to have a credible position on to be a credible candidate. Anecdotally, it seems clear to me that this is something that is important to a number of Evangelical and Catholic groups.
I have summarized the responses in a table. I think it is revealing.
The main proposal on the table is cap-and-trade. Greg Mankiw, a Romney economic advisor and a former Bush Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors has a very cogent criticism of cap-and-trade, but calls for carbon taxes instead. The quotes from the candidates are after the jump. (more…)
My friend David Freddoso asks about the possibility of a brokered convention. What do we think of this? The first thing that I think is that a brokered convention would be very difficult for us. The biggest issue is fundraising. I don’t think that the party will be able to Read more…
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the race right now. The biggests questions are probably: First, will there be a Mitt Romney-Rudy Giuliani murder-suicide? Luntz focus groups suggest that Romney might have done better on immigration in the debate. Second, will Giuliani’s scandals continue? There’s Placa, Shag Fund, and others. Read more…
I didn’t get the chance to live-blog this, but I did take notes. There were some great moments. Rudy Giuliani’s slap of Romney with "sanctuary mansion" was outstanding. Mike Huckabee’s handling of the death penalty question was masterful. The complexity of his answer to the literalism of the Bible question Read more…
Seemingly every day, there is a new piece by a high-profile Republican/conservative attacking Mike Huckabee for being some sort of "big government" conservative or even liberal. Today, it was Bob Novak. I’m not going to quibble on the points, although I would point out that in Northern Virginia, where I Read more…
It has been a pretty remarkable two days in terms of endorsements: Yesterday, Mitt Romney got Paul Weyrich. Weyrich had been rumored to be going with Fred Thompson, but not so much… And he said Mike Huckabee couldn’t win. This is certainly a DC-insider endorsement. Today, Rudy Giuliani got Pat Read more…
The Ron Paul money bomb is amazing. On a certain level though, it makes a lot of sense. I’m about to make a totally obvious point: Ron Paul’s support is a protest vote. There are a lot of Republicans right now who are really angry. Republicans are furious with their Read more…