Well, we have our first set of polls with Fred Thompson in the race. What happens? First, Rudy Giuliani loses a lot of support to Thompson. That is a surprise, but not entirely. I suspect that these are the people who like Rudy, don’t like McCain so much and want Read more…
Epic-MRA has a new Michigan poll. Now, the horserace numbers are interesting, but I want to focus on some other things. But first the numbers. They gave us both fav/unfavs among Republicans: Don’t Know very Gen Total Gen very Total undec George W. Bush 0% 30% 43% 73% Read more…
So I saw this new Franklin Pierce poll that Hugh Hewitt is touting. Now something seems fishy about this. Romney’s ads haven’t been moving people in any state, but, apparently, New Hampshire. And while Mitt Romney is well known, he doesn’t have a home field advantage, as his consultant Rich Read more…
Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee point out the obvious today in the NYT. The GOP is restless. Here are some questions that I would like to see answered (show us crosstabs!!): Who do the 57% who want more candidates support now? And what do they think of the existing candidates? Read more…
Rudy Giuliani’s team had a blogger conference call today. Bull Dog Pundit has the write-up (Mary Katharine Ham has another). I was on the call but did not ask a question.
The purpose of this call appeared to be to keep the momentum and answer criticisms that Rudy can’t win the nomination because of his positions on social issues. They were not really prepared to answer any questions about specific issues that did not relate to polling.
My conclusion? They are kicking butt in the polls and want to tell everyone. Good for them. They deserve it. However, when the question is, "will conservatives still support Rudy when they get to know his positions?", they need to be able to answer those questions. More details after the jump.
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Last week Rasmussen released polls on 2008 head-to-head match-ups between various Republicans and various Democrats. The Brownback campaign touted one that showed Brownback only 5% behind Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Rasmussen notes: Brownback is an unknown to 43%, and viewed favorably by only 19%. Just a couple weeks Read more…
New American Research Poll. This one is interesting because it includes likely voters instead of adults or Republican adults. I want cross-tabs on this. Republicans National Giuliani 34% McCain 30% Gingrich 12% Undecided 9% Romney 7% Brownback 1% Gilmore 1% Hagel 1% Huckabee 1% Pataki 1% Paul 1% Tancredo 1% Read more…
Almost all the big polls are now out, along with some important analysis. So let me dive right in.
There are clearly three tiers of candidates from the polls. The picture at the right from Gallup clearly points these tiers out. First is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. They have similar likability, and in recent weeks, it appears that Rudy has taken support from McCain in the polls. The second is Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Both of these candidates appear to have relatively high "unfavorables" and even large numbers of Republicans who do not want them to be the nominee. And the third tier is people who no one has heard of. These are Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, etc.
Now, these differ from the conventional wisdom in Washington that places John McCain first, Rudy Giuliani second, and Mitt Romney third. Another poll found that Romney is leading about Republican National Committee members. So there is a clear disconnect between the opinions of "insiders" and the opinions of the masses. What is going on and how do the various campaigns understand these polls?
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A couple of weeks ago, Mitt Romney went up with ads. And a number of people said that if his numbers didn’t move, he was toast. Well, in Florida, they aren’t moving. From a new 3-state (OH, FL, PA) Quinnipiac: FL OH PA Giuliani 38% 35% 43% McCain 18 Read more…
Is there any other way to describe this piece on Romney? The last sentence is a killer: The more voters learn about him, the less they seem to like him.