Gallup aggregated their March and April polls on the GOP field. There are several important breakdowns in the polls. In a variety of ways, these suggest several points: Rudy Giuliani’s support is strongest among moderates, younger age cohorts, and people who attend church the least. These are groups that the Read more…
Kavon over at Race 4 2008 got me back to this little project I have of comparing general election matchups for various GOP candidates.
Rasmussen has started to collect general election matchups. I have collected them and presented them in, what I think, is the clearest and most useful format (note that these are not all from the same poll, so methodologically, there is something deeply unsound about this. RCP averages would be great):
| Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Fav – UnFav | % unknown | |
| Giuliani | +8 | +1 | +7 | +33 | 3% |
| McCain | +7 | 0 | -9 | +17 | 3% |
| Thompson | +1 | -12 | -14 | +13 | 41% |
| Gingrich | -7 | -10 | -5 | 9% | |
| Romney | -9 | -15 | -26 | -5 | 31% |
| Brownback | -5 | -15 | -19 | 43% |
Gallup just released their new April poll. There are some interesting things going on inside. First, an omnibus table with all the numbers, margin of error is 5%: Candidate GOP % Without Newt GOP Fav GOP UnFav Overall Fav Overall UnFav Rudy Giuliani 38 42 77 14 61 27 John Read more…
Strategic Vision just released a poll of Iowa caucus-goers. I don’t want to focus on the horse-race numbers because it is so hard to do a likely voter screen in Iowa (nonetheless, they are after the jump, and we will let you debate whether or not Romney’s single-digits are still real). However there are some interesting things that are worth noting:
First Iraq:
4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 52%
No 39%
Undecided 9%
I have argued for a while that the Iowa GOP is more anti-war than other states. This would also explain Mitt Romney’s recent flip-flop on Iraq.
They also ask:
3. How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, undecided? (Republicans Only)
Very Important 39%
Somewhat Important 18%
Not Very Important 14%
Not Important 13%
Undecided 16%
But this does mean different things to different people… But only 6% believe that George Bush is like Reagan, so at least they get that straight….
Horserace after the jump…
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Michael Barone discusses the apparent transfer of votes between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson and poses the following question and answer: But they must also be people who believe Giuliani and Thompson have something in common that they’d like to see in the White House. What is that? … Strong Read more…
Roll Call ($) has the story. I argued a long time ago that Iraq was going to be more of a problem for the Democrats than the Republicans. What has happened since then? First, Bush is going to get to veto a pork-laden bill. And the people like that: The Read more…
This post emerges from some a number of sources including some recent polls and articles that I will reference, some discussions with conservatives in other countries, and Rob Bluey’s recent blogger lunch on the topic. Let me start with a summary of where the GOP candidates are on the issue. Read more…
I just thought this was too funny..
I meant to write about this but got distracted. Dan Gerstein has, I think, the proper rebuttal to the guys at the Politico. Perhaps the GOP bad poll numbers are just about Bush? And the correction to Bush lies with a Rudy Giuliani or John McCain, wo fairly different approaches.
Today, The Fix said this about John McCain: These numbers suggest that McCain’s best route to winning the GOP nomination is to focus heavily on his years of on-the-job training to be president — from his military service to his years in Congress to his run for president in 2000. Read more…