Pollster.com has the results of a 16-state survey of 2-way and 3-way matchups between Giulaini, Clinton, and Bloomberg. First, the data: 3-way 2-way Bloomberg Effect State Giuliani Clinton Bloomberg Giuliani Clinton From G From H Alabama 46 39 11 53 41 -7 -2 California 40 45 10 44 49 -4 Read more…
I have been interested in the whole "electability" question and general election matchups. I am fascinated by the numbers from the new Cook/RT poll. Clinton Obama All GOP Ind All GOP Ind Giuliani 0 +74 +4 0 +67 +7 Thompson 0 +78 +1 -7 +45 -13 Romney -7 Read more…
Datamar has a poll of the 2008 GOP Florida primary. Race42008’s HeavyM says, "who in the world is DataMar?" Well, from their website: Providing quality software solutions since 1981 Surveys & Data Intelligence Strategies Datamar Modular Accounting Solutions Sweet! I needed an … accounting system? For my polls. Right…. Read more…
Another poll indicates that Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa. I think that this is probably right, and the RCP average suggests that this is sustained. I have suggested that Romney is running a fantastic campaign in Iowa and in general. It strikes me that this is soft though. Check Read more…
Hotline discusses the Des Moines Register’s new poll of Iowa likely caucusgoers. They say the numbers should be taken seriously, so I will. In this poll Mitt Romney gets 30% of the vote, John McCain gets 18%, and Rudy Giuliani gets 17%. I suspect that other polls will come out Read more…
Gallup says Bush is polling higher, but within the margin of error, of Congress. Can the Democrats sustain this level of poor performance in Congress?
I think David Frum nails it here: I wish somebody at the Reagan Library had said: "Ronald Reagan was a great leader and a great president because he addressed the problems of his time. But we have very different problems — and we need very different answers. Here are mine." Read more…
Title says it all. Another way of stating it is that the most recent SurveyUSA poll that the Mitt Romney team is pushing is totally crack. Way more than 3% are undecided.
Ok, now I have argued that electability will matter in this election. And early polls only matter a little. But the new Diageo/Hotline poll, via Pollster.com, should terrify Republicans: Clinton Obama Edwards Rudy Giuliani +4 -9 -6 John McCain 0 -11 -11 That is, Rudy Giuliani is beating Clinton Read more…
First, of all, let me say that the recent ARG polls, strike me as a little weird. (I am suspicious of their likely voter model, especially in Iowa) My money is on these being outliers. Several things do occur to me though. First, the numbers: Republicans IA NH SC John Read more…