An account of a tele-townhall meeting
I keep hearing about these. Thanks to inMuscatine for live-blogging it. I am convinced that this is part of Romney moving numbers in Iowa.
Healthcare lobbies campaign in early primary states
I thought this was interesting. It appears that two different healthcare lobby groups are using a strategy of grassroots and media campaigns in early primary states. I have copied the ad for the Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease. The Hill runs a story about AARP and a bunch of patients Read more…
Romney up in Iowa, but questions remain
Another poll indicates that Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa. I think that this is probably right, and the RCP average suggests that this is sustained. I have suggested that Romney is running a fantastic campaign in Iowa and in general. It strikes me that this is soft though. Check Read more…
Strategy
Romney’s new Iowa numbers
Hotline discusses the Des Moines Register’s new poll of Iowa likely caucusgoers. They say the numbers should be taken seriously, so I will. In this poll Mitt Romney gets 30% of the vote, John McCain gets 18%, and Rudy Giuliani gets 17%. I suspect that other polls will come out Read more…
ARG polls
First, of all, let me say that the recent ARG polls, strike me as a little weird. (I am suspicious of their likely voter model, especially in Iowa) My money is on these being outliers. Several things do occur to me though. First, the numbers: Republicans IA NH SC John Read more…
Giuliani and the evangelicals
One of the great questions of this election will be whether social conservatives abandon Rudy Giuliani. Conventional wisdom suggests that they will. The Giuliani campaign has gone to great lengths to argue that they will not. Today, the LA Times weighs in with polls and anecdotes: "He’s got that New Read more…
Rudy: Our party has to get beyond issues like that
Regarding abortion, Rudy Giuliani said at a campaign stop in Iowa: "Our party has to get beyond issues like that." That reminds me of something else he said… Update: Looks like a reporter stripped some context out.
Iowa Lincoln Day Dinner: Is Jim Gilmore an idiot?
Krusty has a great write up of the Iowa Lincoln Day dinner. So does Kavon at Race42008. I can’t add much to their reporting, so I will get it be. However, I will note that Jim Gilmore continued to look like an idiot. And I’m not referring to his flop Read more…
24% of Iowa Caucus-goers …
According to The Fix, that’s the number that self-identify as the religious right. That’s interesting in its own right.
Interesting new IA poll: They don’t like Iraq
Strategic Vision just released a poll of Iowa caucus-goers. I don’t want to focus on the horse-race numbers because it is so hard to do a likely voter screen in Iowa (nonetheless, they are after the jump, and we will let you debate whether or not Romney’s single-digits are still real). However there are some interesting things that are worth noting:
First Iraq:
4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 52%
No 39%
Undecided 9%
I have argued for a while that the Iowa GOP is more anti-war than other states. This would also explain Mitt Romney’s recent flip-flop on Iraq.
They also ask:
3. How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, undecided? (Republicans Only)
Very Important 39%
Somewhat Important 18%
Not Very Important 14%
Not Important 13%
Undecided 16%
But this does mean different things to different people… But only 6% believe that George Bush is like Reagan, so at least they get that straight….
Horserace after the jump…
(more…)