This really isn’t a surprise, but Roll Call has the news. Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ) will not run for re-election. The FBI raid was making this swing seat even harder to keep, and there was a lot of pressure from the NRCC to get out.

There will undoubtedly be a nasty primary. The one Renzi won in 2002 was described to me once as a bloodbath between the Catholics, Evangelicals, and Mormons. Renzi, a Catholic, won with 24%, with the next two candidates each having 20% and another with 16%. Less than a 2k vote margin.

This is also a swing seat. His first race, a good year for Republicans, he won with only 3% or 6k votes. In 2006, the margin was larger with 7% or about 13k votes. Expect a brawl, especially with Arizona being a swing state. A swing seat in a swing state means a lot of money…


Soren Dayton

Soren Dayton is an advocacy professional in Washington, DC who has worked in policy, politics, and in human rights, including in India. Soren grew up in Chicago.