Jerome Armstrong notes another phenomenon in the polling. Indies are breaking hard for John McCain. First, he notes this picture from Gallup:
Then notes the same pattern in other polls:
CBS: McCain is ahead by 55-25 among Independents.
Hotline: McCain is ahead by 45-32, among Independents.
Here, there are two theories. The first is that these are real independents. The second is that these are disaffected Republicans ("rehab Republicans" in the McCain campiagn’s schema of target voters). These would be Republicans who disaffiliated from the GOP but like McCain and, perhaps, Palin. If the second theory holds, we probably will keep these voters. If the second is going on, we won’t know for a little while.
But Jerome closes on an important point:
Under this sort of scenario, the only possible way Obama could be ahead, or tied, is if party ID dramatically favors Democrats on election day. It hasn’t in any of the recent election years.