I woke up this morning, and started checking my email. The first hint was a message from a Polish friend in Brussels. Al Gore had won the Nobel Peace Prize. My friend now thinks that Al Gore has a lock on the primary and general now. I responded that that was an over-reaction. But what is going to happen?
I don’t understand Democratic primary voters well enough to know what would happen in their primary. Basically, everyone would have to fold for him to have a chance, I would assume. But I don’t know.
I also wonder about the GOP primary. Will this create a backlash against the candidates who think that we need to do something about global warming, namely John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Sam Brownback?
On a broader level, I wonder where this issue is going in the national electorate. A bunch of consultants and think-tankers point out that no one really votes on global warming. But we are in a politics of narrative, not a politics of fact. The narrative that global warming denying gives us is that we are out of touch. It is another talking point in a long list that the Democrats have. When 60+% think that we are in a recession and Republican candidates talk about everything being rosy, something seems strange. When our electeds deny global warming, but 80% of NH Republicans say they would raise taxes to address the problem, something seems strange.
Last night I had coffee with my uncle. He is one of the founders of the What Would Jesus Drive movement. Today the National Association for Evangelicals — my uncle is the co-chair of their policy committee –, Bread for the World, the Micah Challenge, and a number of evangelical and mainline groups are meeting in DC to talk about a number of issues, but first on the agenda? Global warming. (Second is "torture" by the way) One of the most important swing votes right now is moderate evangelicals. And this issue (these issues? I might even throw in immigration for a trifecta) is moving on us. We need to start addressing it.
Back to my friends in Europe for a second. In February, I attended, representing the GOP, a conference of young leaders of center-right parties from around the world. All the Europeans said that this issue creeps up on you. That it is not a ballot issue, but a credibility issue. That taking a measured position had become no longer politically viable for them. The Aussies (the Liberal Party), the Canadians (the Conservative Party of Canada) and the Republicans, all said, "no no no…"
Since then the Australian Liberals and the Canadian Conservatives have switched positions, leaving the Republicans the only remaining major center-right party in the world that has not moved on this issue.
6 Comments
Zarathustra · October 13, 2007 at 6:12 PM
Then it would stand to reason that a nation that will, at some point, face hard limits on its total carbon dioxide emissions (limits that are normalized to its 1990 population level, as per Kyoto) can no longer afford mass immigration. Every new immigrant, legal or illegal, who enters the country is just one more person with which we must share a limited energy pie, making the sacrifices the rest of us must make just that much more difficult.
eye · October 14, 2007 at 6:45 AM
Well. Kyoto is not and has never been a serious idea.
And I still don’t buy the tie to environmentalism. Our energy/growth ratio is much better than the entire developed world.
The Liberal OC » Why Can’t California Republicans See the Light on Climate Change? · October 16, 2007 at 1:42 AM
[…] Why Can’t California Republicans See the Light on Climate Change? Posted on October 15th, 2007 by Gila [written by Andrew Davey, posted by Gila] /* On Friday evening, I had quite a unique opportunity to see first-hand what Republicans are thinking about their own future. I attended the Friday night dinner for the 2007 Western CPAC Conference in Newport Beach. Yes, believe it or not, I have nice Republican friends who invite me to events like this. And believe it or not, I wanted to see for myself what matters to conservatives. Well, now I have seen, and I have to wonder why so many in the Republican Party are so willing to destroy their party’s own future along with the future of this planet. As you’ve heard by now, State Senator Tom McClintock (R-What Is He Thinking?) gave the keynote speech. He spoke about why we shouldn’t worry so much about the coming climate crisis, but rather the “rabid extremists” pushing that “man made global warming nonsense”. He also tried to claim that California’s new efforts to curb climate change are forcing businesses like the Wonder Bread factory to shut down, and that the effort to save our planet and ourselves from the coming climate crisis is somehow a threat to “personal liberty.” It was sad, really, to witness Sen. McClintock completely miss a good opportunity the GOP has to return to sanity. /* I mean, come on! The Governator is giving them a real opportunity to become productive in solving the climate crisis. Sure, I may not agree with everything Arnold does, but at least he acknowledges reality and he’s willing to do something about it. He signed AB 32 last year, and this legislation has now put California on the forefront of finding solutions to climate change. This year, he’s signed into law several bills that promote better energy conservation. Basically, Arnold understands that our state will ultimately benefit from thinking ahead and taking action on the climate crisis while there is still time to solve it. Not only are we allowing for our own survival, but we are also creating new business opportunities in producing renewable energy and creating energy-efficient products.Well, Arnold sees the light somewhat regarding climate change. Why can’t the rest of his party do so? Follow me after the flip for more. /* So why can’t more Republicans recognize the reality of climate change? What will it take for them to wake up and smell the coming crisis? Apparently, the smoke from the wildfires isn’t waking them up. And no, neither is the storm surge from the hurricanes. OK, so what will it take? A complete electoral wipe out next year?Why can’t more Republicans see what Arnold is seeing? Why are they now focusing all their energy on smearing Al Gore, when they could actually be thinking of solutions to the climate crisis? For all their talk of “conservatism”, they don’t see why we must conserve this planet for future generations. For all their talk of “moral values”, they can’t see the real moral value of caring for God’s creation. And for all their talk of “free enterprise”, they can’t see the new opportunities for enterprise in saving the planet. What’s the problem here? […]
Ankle Biting Pundits » Blog Archive » “Global Warming and the GOP” · October 16, 2007 at 7:37 AM
[…] My friend Soren Dayton who, I see, is now front-paging over at Red State, frets about the Republican Party and its apparent nonchalance about global warming and the environment. It’s not that Soren is wringing his hands that “our planet has a fever” per se, but rather that the trajectory of the global warming narrative is rendering Republican candidates for high public office out of touch with the current conventional wisdom. […]
eyeon08.com » Is red the new green? · October 26, 2007 at 12:49 PM
[…] Monday night, I am going to the book Launch for the latest Newt Gingrich book. A Contract with the Earth. I think this is a big deal. Once Newt takes a position, it becomes part of the mainstream in the GOP. Not in the sense that people will start to agree with you. But instead that it becomes hard for people to belittle you, like my friend Rob Bluey does on global warming. I have argued that our current position on global warming may be politically unsustainable. When business goes green, the churches go green, and Newt goes green, I am beginning to see a movement. […]
eyeon08.com » CBS gets Republicans on the record on global warming · December 11, 2007 at 11:39 AM
[…] Tonight, the candidates are answering the question: "Do you think the risks of climate change are at all overblown?" I have discussed the real-world politics (what real people actually think) and some of the beltway politics of the issue. It is clear in New Hampshire, at least, that Republicans think that global warming is an issue that the government must act on, even if it is one that is a low-priority for primary voters. […]
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