This is big and complicated. California is strongly considering moving up to February 5th. This will have an enormous impact on the race. First, the money barrier to entry just got a lot bigger. A lot. California is really really big.

Second, the rules, on the Republican side, in California are quite strange and still in flux. California has a winner-take-all by-congressional-district system. Therefore, the guy that gets 20k votes in a hard Democratic district gets as many delegates as someone who gets 100k in a hard GOP one. So gaming out how to play in California will be quite complicated.

Third, the rules for the primary may be changed. There has been speculation in several directions. We really just won’t know until the California Republican Party convention in February.

And fourth, some background. What the LAT story does not tell you is that this is getting pushed by the legislature because there may be an attempt to repeal term limits. By making an early primary, like this, there will be an opportunity to put that question on the Feb 2008 ballot in time for legislators to file for their regular June primary if term limits are repealed.


3 Comments

race42008.com » Blog Archive » Rudy, Rudy, Rudy · January 21, 2007 at 1:50 PM

[…] If Rudy is serious about really getting in this thing, and his people are taking pains to let it be known that he is, then more power to him. I just hope that he didn’t wait too long and can manage to catch up with McCain and Romney. Given that California is heavily considering moving their primary (for both parties) to February 5th, it’s all the more crucial that candidates have enough of an organization (both field staff and lots of money) in place to be competitive where it counts. by LJ @ 3:47 pm. Filed under Rudy Giuliani   [Trackback URL]  [link] Trackback URL for this post: http://race42008.com/2007/01/21/rudy-rudy-rudy/trackback/ […]

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy at Conservative Times--Republican GOP news source. · January 21, 2007 at 1:55 PM

[…] If Rudy is serious about really getting in this thing, and his people are taking pains to let it be known that he is, then more power to him. I just hope that he didn’t wait too long and can manage to catch up with McCain and Romney. Given that California is heavily considering moving their primary (for both parties) to February 5th, it’s all the more crucial that candidates have enough of an organization (both field staff and lots of money) in place to be competitive where it counts. […]

eyeon08.com » California open-primary, California politics, and John McCain · March 7, 2007 at 7:43 PM

[…] It is important to recognize that things in California politics are always more complicated than they seem. For starters, the California primary was moved up to help the legislators keep their jobs. They have put an initiative on the ballot remove term limits. The idea is that they end term limits and then file for the June primaries. There’s going to be another initiative on the ballot at the same time: non-partisan redistricting. Redistricting is very important to Governor Schwarzenegger. (at this point, I have to throw in a disclaimer. I worked on the 2005 redistricting initiative) […]

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