First, of all, let me say that the recent ARG polls, strike me as a little weird. (I am suspicious of their likely voter model, especially in Iowa) My money is on these being outliers. Several things do occur to me though. First, the numbers:
| Republicans | IA | NH | SC |
| John McCain | 26% | 29% | 36% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 19% | 17% | 23% |
| Mitt Romney | 14% | 24% | 6% |
| Fred Thompson | 13% | 7% | 10% |
| Undecided | 12% | 14% | 12% |
| Gingrich | 8% | 4% | 6% |
Romney does dramatically worse in South Carolina. These numbers do confirm what Gallup found about Romney’s performance in the South. He just does dramatically worse there compared to other regions. Also, Fred Thompson’s weakness in New Hampshire suggests a similar pattern.
In any case, we shall see.
