New American Research Poll. This one is interesting because it includes likely voters instead of adults or Republican adults. I want cross-tabs on this.
| Republicans | National |
| Giuliani | 34% |
| McCain | 30% |
| Gingrich | 12% |
| Undecided | 9% |
| Romney | 7% |
| Brownback | 1% |
| Gilmore | 1% |
| Hagel | 1% |
| Huckabee | 1% |
| Pataki | 1% |
| Paul | 1% |
| Tancredo | 1% |
| Thompson | 1% |
| Hunter | – |
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7 Comments
Mark · March 8, 2007 at 5:47 PM
Is anyone else surprised at Newt’s number’s given he’s not a candidate. As well, if this i s most likely voters, it seem interesting that Newt’s numbers are the same as Real Clear politics numbers for GOP primary voters?
Mark · March 8, 2007 at 5:49 PM
ARG site says this:
The following results are based on nationwide samples of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted March 2-5, 2007. The theoretical margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.
Looks like this is still a poll of identified D’s and R’s
eye · March 8, 2007 at 6:17 PM
I think that we agree. I meant likely primary voters, not just IDd Ds and Rs.
Mark · March 8, 2007 at 10:41 PM
At this point in the election cycle in 2000 Bush was at 44%. Rudy’s 10 points lower. Explanation?
eye · March 8, 2007 at 10:50 PM
What am I supposed to be explaining?
Mark · March 9, 2007 at 12:41 PM
Just wondering what your thoughts are on Giuliani the front runner having less of a comand of the field at this point than Bush did in 2000. Alot of pundits have made a point of this. I’m not sure what to make of it myself.
eye · March 9, 2007 at 2:27 PM
I believe that there is a lot of softness in Giuliani’s numbers. But, at the same time, he is a hero.
I think that:
(1) we don’t know whether 9/11 trumps social issues. My hunch, for some GOP activists — about a quarter? –, it does.
(2) is the image of Giuliani totally fixed? Haven’t decided yet.
As I have said, campaigns are experiments.
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