Swing State Project sees tomorrow’s special election to fill Rep. Gerry Connelly’s seat as a proxy fight and preview of the fall Republican and Democratic gubenatorial match up:
If the Dem wins, I expect we’ll see all kinds of competing claims over who deserves credit. Of course, the GOP will just say that the Dems should have won, and they’d be right – Fairfax went 60-39 for Obama. On the other hand, a loss or even a close call will lead to predictable recriminations and give Virginia Republicans a dose of momentum they certainly don’t deserve. Regardless of who wins our gubernatorial primary, that’s something the Dems can’t afford.
There is, potentially, another interpretation. Perhaps it is a proxy fight between Tim Kaine and Michael Steele. Certainly the VA GOP is at a low point (hopefully). But the VA Democratic Party should be riding high, and Tim Kaine, both the Dem governor of Virginia and Chairman of the DNC, would suffer a huge black eye from a GOP victory, which is not out of the question.
In January, an 80-20 district, District 46, was won by the Democrats by only 16 votes. This may be found to be the beginning of the end of one of the Democratic candidates for governor:
This is a bad sign for Brian Moran and Alexandria Democrats no matter what the end result is, this is one of the most democratic districts in the state (75% for Obama, 80% for Warner, and 73% for Kaine) and the margin is razor thin!
We have a chance tomorrow to scalp another Democrat and help Pat Herrity pull this off. Michael Steele would get to go on TV and claim that "the comeback starts now" with him.
It would be a great symbolic rallying moment for the GOP and a wonderful way to start Steele’s chairmanship.