Core Favorability/Opposition Among All Voters

Candidate

Def. FOR

Def. AGAINST

Net

Obama

29%

36%

-7

McCain

22%

33%

-11

Huckabee

21%

34%

-13

Thompson

21%

34%

-13

Edwards

23%

38%

-15

Clinton

30%

47%

-17

Giuliani

23%

42%

-19

Romney

19%

47%

-28

Paul

10%

48%

-38

Bloomberg

5%

49%

-44

Rasmussen has released another set of polling that allows us to compare all the candidates. The summary table to the right captures the main facts. You will recall that there is a horrible environment for Republicans in 2008. On the generic ballot, Democrats crush Republicans. However, Clinton has such an awful public image that the generic GOP problems are counter-balanced. Well, the conclusion from Rasmussen is that Mitt Romney has a comparable problem:

Among the leading Presidential candidates, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have the highest level of core opposition among voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they will vote against each of these candidates no matter who else is on the ballot.

Republicans often argue that Hillary is beatable because of this opposition. What about Romney who has no environmental advantages? Back to Rasmussen, which notes that John McCain is doing the best:

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Arizona Senator John McCain. For the second straight month, McCain finds himself with the smallest level of core opposition–just 33% say they will definitely vote against him. That figure is unchanged from a month ago, down from 39% a two months ago and a peak of 42% in June. These results are just one part of the reason that it is a good time to be John McCain.

Assume for a second that swing-voters will be the key in a general election, consider the additional facts among unaffiliated voters:

McCain has the lowest level of core opposition among unaffiliated voters–just 26% are committed to voting against McCain.

On a net basis, McCain (-6) and Obama (-11) have the best numbers among unaffiliated voters. Clinton (-26) and Romney (-20) have the weakest showing among this group.

In other words, the Clinton/Romney unelectability numbers extend into unaffiliated voters. While McCain gives Republicans the best chance of picking up substantial independent voters. That means keeping the White House. 

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6 Comments

ee2793 · December 22, 2007 at 9:13 PM

Looking at those numbers and placing such reliance on them at this early date is crazy.

P.S. You better personally apologize to the Romney family for your lies about MLK. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7524.html. You should aplogize and retract your WW-McCain hit piece, too, but you don’t have the class.

eye · December 23, 2007 at 2:35 AM

There is some evidence that the Romney campaign lied to reporters. Again:

http://thephoenix.com/TalkingPolitics/PermaLink.aspx?guid=ff666446-0340-417d-9520-5c7b030bed55

Just like the Western Wats case….

Chuck Adkins » Polls say that Clinton and Romney Have Highest Level of Core Opposition · December 22, 2007 at 8:04 PM

[…] Others: Riehl World View, eyeon08.com, Hot Air and PoliGazette via Memeorandum […]

Everyone Hates Mitt and HillDog « Blogs 4 Conservatives · December 23, 2007 at 12:39 AM

[…] Maybe eyeon08 or Ed Morrissey can help untangle this mess and explain it for us.  I hope so.  Because, frankly, I’m lost. […]

For or Against at My McCain Blog · December 24, 2007 at 12:09 PM

[…] Eyeon08 has a great examination of the latest electability polls. […]

Handicapping « PAULMENTUM: The product of the mass and velocity of change · December 24, 2007 at 5:58 PM

[…] Here’s the math: if Romney is slated to win, then he will probably go against Clinton in the general.  Within his own party, he will be bruised and battered by his top-tier frontrunners in the early states, and he will have to try to reunify his party for the general.  All the while, he and Hillary are polling the highest negatives of everyone in the race.  And, with two incredibly polarizing characters on the left and right ends of the spectrum, it is not hard to imagine that Ron Paul’s third party window will open wide enough for him to step through.  As this endorsement points out, Paul’s battleground is non-partisan and in the middle.    […]

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