According to RCP, Rasmussen has the first Michigan poll in about a month. Normally, I don’t write about all the polls coming out. But this is the only data we have since the Huckaboom. In this data, we have Mike Huckabee at 21, Mitt Romney at 20, and Rudy Giuliani at 19.
A Huckabee success in Michigan seems plausible. After all, the state has 7.7% unemployment which is, I think, the highest unemployment rate in the country. So it would seem that Michigan could be receptive to a Huckabee message.
But there is something much, much deeper going on. First, there basically is no Democratic primary. From the Detroit Free Press:
The result is that there are almost no Democratic candidates on the ballot here, and it’s unclear whether Michigan Republicans will be fully represented at next summer’s convention. It’s a mess, and an expensive one at that, costing state taxpayers $10 million-plus for the election.
Four Democratic candidates – Joe Biden, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson – have opted out of the Michigan primary because its early date violates national party rules.
Second, there is no party registration. Meaning Democrats can — and will — vote in the Republican primary. With practically no Democratic primary, could Huckabee’s union endorsements push him over the top? How many Dems can Huckabee add to the mix?
And what happens if Huckabee wins Iowa and Michigan? What does that mean for South Carolina? Or Romney?