FT has a story about some of the problems:

Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said last week that the central bank now thinks the economy will not return to close to its trend rate of growth until some time into next year. Earlier on, policymakers had talked about a return to close to trend by the final quarters of this year.

An analyst is quoted in a front-page WaPo story a little bit more clearly:

"When people get scared, they tighten up all over," said A. Gary Shilling, president of the investment firm that bears his name. He said he expects housing prices to fall significantly further. "This kills consumer spending," he said of the credit crunch. "We think we’ll be in a recession as a result by the end of the year. And that will spread globally because U.S. consumers still are the buyers of first and last resort for the excess goods and services produced around the world."

Oy. And awareness of these is a lagging indicator.

Categories: economy