Pollster.com has the results of a 16-state survey of 2-way and 3-way matchups between Giulaini, Clinton, and Bloomberg. First, the data:
Several things to notice. First, the differences created by a Bloomberg candidacy are real. While there is plenty to be suspicious of, here are some thoughts:
- Even without Bloomberg, Giuliani loses nearly every swing state. Giuliani would win only Missouri and Washington. Note that WV, CO, NV, AZ, PA, MI, and FL are not included in this sample.
- Bloomberg seems to take his votes from both sides, but somewhat more from the GOP. However, in the swing states, the damage seems to be almost 2-1 against the GOP. However, these results are almost all within the margin of error.
- It is going to take more data to figure this out.
But this is not good for the GOP with or without Bloomberg