Pollster.com has the results of a 16-state survey of 2-way and 3-way matchups between Giulaini, Clinton, and Bloomberg. First, the data:


3-way 2-way Bloomberg Effect
State Giuliani Clinton Bloomberg Giuliani Clinton From G
From H
Alabama 46 39 11 53 41 -7 -2
California 40 45 10 44 49 -4 -4
Iowa 37 42 11 41 47 -4 -5
Kansas 47 36 8 53 41 -6 -5
Kentucky 42 41 10 47 44 -5 -3
Massachusetts 37 47 9 42 52 -5 -5
Minnesota 37 48 7 41 50 -4 -2
Missouri 39 44 10 47 46 -8 -2
New Mexico 41 45 8 44 50 -3 -5
New York 32 49 15 38 56 -6 -7
Ohio 41 47 8 46 49 -5 -2
Oregon 38 44 11 44 48 -6 -4
Texas 48 34 10 54 37 -6 -3
Virginia 45 40 9 48 44 -3 -4
Washington 41 42 11 47 44 -6 -2
Wisconsin 40 44 10 46 47 -6 -3


Several things to notice. First, the differences created by a Bloomberg candidacy are real. While there is plenty to be suspicious of, here are some thoughts:

  1. Even without Bloomberg, Giuliani loses nearly every swing state. Giuliani would win only Missouri and Washington. Note that WV, CO, NV, AZ, PA, MI, and FL are not included in this sample.
  2. Bloomberg seems to take his votes from both sides, but somewhat more from the GOP. However, in the swing states, the damage seems to be almost 2-1 against the GOP. However, these results are almost all within the margin of error.
  3. It is going to take more data to figure this out.

But this is not good for the GOP with or without Bloomberg

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1 Comment

Bloomberg candidacy looming · July 25, 2007 at 4:58 PM

[…] While a few bloggers and some polls have indicated a Bloomberg candidacy would hurt the GOP, there’s little way this could happen based on the mayor’s stances on key issues. His entry into the 2008 presidential campaign will help Republican candidates. […]

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