Gallup aggregated their March and April polls on the GOP field. There are several important breakdowns in the polls.

In a variety of ways, these suggest several points:

  • Rudy Giuliani’s support is strongest among moderates, younger age cohorts, and people who attend church the least. These are groups that the GOP needs to reach out to. But do they vote reliably in primaries? This raises questions about the quality of the likely voter screens in polls.
  • John McCain’s support appears to be flat across these groups, with a skewing towards older Republicans.
  • Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have similar profiles among older voters and by church attendance and ideology. Newt performs much better in the South, whereas Romney performs very well out west.
  • Fred Thompson’s support is flat across Church attendance, but skewed towards conservatives. What other axis is in play here?

by Church Attendance

 

Weekly

Monthly

Seldom/
never

 

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

29

36

40

John McCain

19

25

19

Fred Thompson

11

10

11

Newt Gingrich

10

7

8

Mitt Romney

10

5

4

 by Ideology

Conservative
Republicans

Moderates/Liberal
Republicans

%

%

31

41

19

22

13

7

11

4

8

3


Note how ideology and church attendance track for all the candidates but Thompson. What is going on here?

by Region

 

East

Midwest

South

West

 

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

41

35

36

27

John McCain

24

21

14

25

Fred Thompson

7

8

15

9

Newt Gingrich

6

6

11

9

Mitt Romney

6

4

3

13

by Age

18 to 29

30 to 49

50 to 64

65+

%

%

%

%

41

36

34

28

16

22

18

23

5

12

11

12

4

6

12

14

3

6

7

9


Looking at the difference in Romney’s performance in the South and the West, I cannot help but wonder if Mormonism is the issue here. Are Republicans out west just more comfortable with Mormons and Republicans in the South (overwhelming more evangelical) simply less?

And this suggests that Fred Thompson is basically Newt Gingrich in people’s minds everywhere in the country except the South, where people seem to perceive a real difference. What is that?

Can we start getting polls without Newt Gingrich?

Categories:

1 Comment

eyeon08.com » ARG polls · May 2, 2007 at 8:10 AM

[…] Romney does dramatically worse in South Carolina. These numbers do confirm what Gallup found about Romney’s performance in the South. He just does dramatically worse there compared to other regions. Also, Fred Thompson’s weakness in New Hampshire suggests a similar pattern. […]

Comments are closed.