Newsflash: Romney not imploding!
So says Marc Ambdiner at the Hotline.
Prediction, Newt is getting in
How else do you explain Newt Gingrich’s radio appearance with Dobson yesterday. He, in essence, asked for absolution from America’s Protestant Pope. Conserviatves, especially conservative Christians, like a redemption story. I still contend that George W. Bush’s alcoholism is a fundamental part of his narrative for the Christian community. Jesus Read more…
MA GOPers for Truth forms
Everything in this cycle starts early, including, according to the Boston Herald, the formation of groups to attack candidates. In Massachusetts, there is now the Massachusetts Republicans for Truth, to go live on Mitt Romney’s birthday (happy birthday!): “It’s a matter of trust,” Robichaud said yesterday. “When somebody changes their Read more…
Romney reshuffle?
I’ve heard the rumors. But Erick at Redstate put it in writing…
Media
Romney flip-flops on favorite movie…
Or so says the Boston Herald. I mean, you have to keep that straight, it is a security question online, right? (H/T Wlady)
Poll Watch: ARG Likely Primary Voters
New American Research Poll. This one is interesting because it includes likely voters instead of adults or Republican adults. I want cross-tabs on this. Republicans National Giuliani 34% McCain 30% Gingrich 12% Undecided 9% Romney 7% Brownback 1% Gilmore 1% Hagel 1% Huckabee 1% Pataki 1% Paul 1% Tancredo 1% Read more…
Whither the Reagan coalition? A new one around the corner?
This is something that I’ve been wondering about for a while. Daniel Casse puts it together nicely. What happened to the Reagan coalition and how is it going to get put together? Or are we going to need to find a new one? Casse comes down on "find a new Read more…
Romney trying to learn from Brownback, a real conservative?
Isn’t this funny? But did Sullivan and the Romneys get comped or did they pay for their tickets?
Strategy
What do the March polls say? What do they mean?
Almost all the big polls are now out, along with some important analysis. So let me dive right in.
There are clearly three tiers of candidates from the polls. The picture at the right from Gallup clearly points these tiers out. First is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. They have similar likability, and in recent weeks, it appears that Rudy has taken support from McCain in the polls. The second is Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Both of these candidates appear to have relatively high "unfavorables" and even large numbers of Republicans who do not want them to be the nominee. And the third tier is people who no one has heard of. These are Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, etc.
Now, these differ from the conventional wisdom in Washington that places John McCain first, Rudy Giuliani second, and Mitt Romney third. Another poll found that Romney is leading about Republican National Committee members. So there is a clear disconnect between the opinions of "insiders" and the opinions of the masses. What is going on and how do the various campaigns understand these polls?
(more…)
California
California open-primary, California politics, and John McCain
Update: I have two additions, both from Jon Fleischman. First, Duf Sundheim denies in writing that he supports John McCain. Usually conservatives have trouble that anyone supports McCain. It is amusing that they insist on it here. Second, Fleischman, in his second post, gets a firm denial from the McCain Read more…