This is great stuff. I’m just going to quote:

McCain: Up until last weekend, I was convinced McCain was destined for second place for the quarter. But something about the way McCain softened his financial expectations personally has me nervous that his campaign is having some fun at Mitt Romney’s expense. His campaign team members are masters of the expectation game. Apparently $25 million isn’t out of the question and that just might top Romney, which would be a moral victory for the once-and-future frontrunner who has a press corps desperate to write "McCain doesn’t have it this time" stories.

Romney: No candidate has more so-called "low hanging fruit" than Mitt Romney, which is why so many folks expect him to raise big money. From Boston, to Bainiacs (ex-Bain Capital colleagues) Mormons and Olympic folks, Romney has a lot of rich friends. Frankly, the campaign needs to finish first because the other aspects of the campaign (namely message) have been suffering.

Giuliani: The leanest campaign of the Big Six is Rudy’s and therefore it’s possible that Rudy finishes third in money raised but second in cash-on-hand which would be a nice feather for the campaign and showcase the spending war and fat payrolls both McCain and Romney are sporting. (BTW: Don’t be surprised if one or more of the campaigns delays payroll until after March 31 just to simply boost their cash totals; it’s an old trick, but still a good one)

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3 Comments

Matt Browner Hamlin · March 30, 2007 at 12:51 PM

I think Romney’s campaign greatly misplayed their fundraising self-promotion strategy. There’s been so much hype around his success that $30 million seems to be a CW benchmark (I recall seeing someone speculate that he could reach $35 mil., but I don’t remember where). Of course this can only lead to a let down and subsequent “Romney performing below expectations.

Moreover, as Todd notes, even if Romney taps into low hanging fruit successfully, he’s not likely to be able to replicate that again. Think John Edwards and trial lawyers in 1st Q 2003.

eyeon08.com » Romney running mates; Farce, right? · March 29, 2007 at 4:35 PM

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eyeon08.com » More thoughts on fundraising · March 31, 2007 at 11:06 AM

[…] In about 12 hours, the Q1 fundraising numbers get filed.  Chuck Todd has a great summary of the implications, and the Hotline has predictions. Hotline also has the Romney campaigns internal memo about how to interpret results. […]

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