Well, we have our first set of polls with Fred Thompson in the race. What happens?
First, Rudy Giuliani loses a lot of support to Thompson. That is a surprise, but not entirely. I suspect that these are the people who like Rudy, don’t like McCain so much and want someone more conservative. I mentioned this kind of possibility when looking at a recent Michigan poll.
Second, as predicted, the rationale for a Mitt Romney campaign becomes harder, because Thompson matches Romney except in places where Romney has specific advantages (more than 2/3rds of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market and Romney has a summer home up there…) So now Romney is tied with Thompson in Ohio and losing to him in Iowa, without any campaigning. (the vaunted Romney Iowa operation — I was in Iowa and impressed — must be freaking out)