Now something seems fishy about this. Romney’s ads haven’t been moving people in any state, but, apparently, New Hampshire. And while Mitt Romney is well known, he doesn’t have a home field advantage, as his consultant Rich Killion said recently:
"People assume that just because [Romney]’s from a neighboring state, he will have a huge advantage. But Giuliani and McCain are household names in this state, and McCain got one out of two votes in the last contested primary up here," said Rich Killion, a New Hampshire political consultant advising Romney.
I just took it as Rich Killion playing the expectation game. Then I realized where I had heard the name before. He used to run Franklin Pierce polls. (hiring announcement, bio from current firm). He defended the Franklin Pierce poll when it was criticized, by the Washington Post, for having poor interviewers (the students are poor, but I mean unskilled):
"Their quality is tremendous," said Richard Killion, who oversees Franklin Pierce polls, later adding: "It really improved when I started paying them."
The article continues with a description of the actual methodological problems at Franklin Pierce:
Surveys taken by students for Franklin Pierce College, which is reporting a Democratic preference poll today, uses samples based on lists of registered voters that have proven to be incomplete, outdated or both. …
Likewise, student interviewers at Franklin Pierce College also don’t randomly select people once they reach a household. They talk to whomever answers the telephone unless they’re sample is skewing more male or female. In that case, if they need more women, they ask in subsequent calls to speak to women, and vice-versa if their sample appears to be light on men.
So I called Mr. Killion, first at his office. He wasn’t there, but I was told, "I don’t think that Franklin Pierce is still Rich’s client." I called his cell, got voice mail. Funny, no call back.
So let me get this straight. Two polls show Romney in the game in New Hampshire (the other is Suffolk University, "in the heart of Boston"). Both of them have shoddy methodology. The most recent is Romney’s consultant’s old polling shop.