I have, for a long time, wondered what the Rudy strategy was. At one point I speculated that he was just a regional candidate. I think I was wrong.
A couple of nights ago, I was having beers with some friends — that’s what we do in DC — and someone connected with the Rudy campaign articulated Rudy’s strategy. It is quite simple.
- Survive through to Feb. 5.
- Kick butt on Feb. 5.
The reasoning here is that Rudy’s name ID, with some credible but not super organization in early states, will be enough to carry him through to Feb. 5. Then February 5 is a big money day, which he can compete in, the field will be thinner, and his opponents will be more beaten up.
This is interesting, but there’s one flaw: the expectations game. John McCain wants to be #2 to Rudy in the polls and have the insiders question Rudy on social issues. That way, Rudy gets beaten up by everyone and has to perform as the front runner.