Rudy Giuliani’s campaign plan was leaked. Outside the Beltway says that it is not a big deal, but I disagree. First of all, it shows places that Giuliani has failed to match his plan. For example:

Two of the top figures on Giuliani’s list, New Jersey mega-fund-raisers Lew Eisenberg and Larry Bathgate, have already signed on with McCain, as has another Giuliani target, FedEx CEO Fred Smith.

In a memo that appears in the dossier, Giuliani aides Dickerson and Roy Bailey urge him to court financier Henry Kravis particularly avidly.

"You need him to be a Wall Street industry leader," the memo says.

McCain announced Kravis’ support last month.

You will recall McCain trying to scoop Giuliani’s fundraising glory last month when he had a $800k fundraiser, which Matt Lewis described as disappointing. Elsewhere in the article, it says that Giuliani needs to raise about $25 million in the next 3 months. The plan also has Giuliani missing targeted pickups in the staff game:

The plan also anticipates his recruiting top GOP fund-raiser Cathy Blaney in New York on a retainer of $260,000 and her Florida counterpart, Ann Herberger, at $216,000. But between the plan’s preparation in the fall and today, Blaney became the chief fund-raiser for the World Trade Center Memorial Foundation, while Herberger reportedly has signed on to the presidential campaign of Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

I would add the fact that there are numbers associated with these might make it harder to bring on new staff. Another part of the document was a partial analysis of Giuliani’s weaknesses:

On the same page is a list of the candidate’s central problems in bullet-point form: his private sector business; disgraced former aide Bernard Kerik; his third wife, Judith Nathan Giuliani; "social issues," on which is he is more liberal than most Republicans, and his former wife Donna Hanover.

Outside the Beltway argues that their release isn’t that important. For the most part, I agree. However, the article does point out that his private sector business dealings are a big deal. Today, the New York Post ran an article about those (coincidence? Probably not). The article notes:

Rudy Giuliani is weighing whether he’ll change his level of involvement with his consulting company – which has clients that could present potential conflicts and provide fodder for opponents – if he runs for president, aides told The Post.

The effect of all of this is that Giuliani has to redouble. We now have a plan to measure him by that he is already behind on. If he can’t raise the money or hire the staff or build the donor base, we will all know it. It could make it harder for Giuliani.

Update: Human Events mentions that some people think this could be fatal.

Categories: Strategy


Ankle Biting Pundits » Blog Archive » The Guiliani Memo · January 2, 2007 at 1:10 PM

[…] Moreover, points out that several of the folks Rudy was targeting to be heavy contributors to his effort have signed on to Sen. McCain’s campaign or with Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s probable campaign. […]

07′ is here, Swing State predicts the future, Giuliani campaign suffers big blow, Romney set to announce. « Swing State · January 2, 2007 at 2:29 PM

[…] Apart from the already foiled fundraising hopes of the campaign, due to the accusation of some of Giuliani’s key targets by likely competition John McCain and Mitt Romney, (See Eye for 08’s take on the matter) the leaked campaign plan further hurts Giuliani in many other ways. […] » Romney and Giuliani announce Finance and Communications teams · January 4, 2007 at 4:54 PM

[…] His targets are behind Rudy Giuliani’s. This actually suggests another problem for Giuliani. A standard strategy in politics is "under-promise, over-deliver". Companies do the same thing with profits (and the budget office does too) by predicting less growth/sales/revenue/profit than they think they will get. In essence, Giuliani is promising to raise money at twice the rate as Romney is. If I was Rudy, I’m not sure that I would have made that public commitment. […] » Romney’s Dial-a-thon · January 8, 2007 at 10:29 AM

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