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Tag: Straw Polls

Iowa GOP helping Romney’s expectation game?

10 August, 2007 (14:24) | Uncategorized | By: soren

Earlier today, I said:

Jonathan Martin is reporting that Sam Brownback, among others, has buses:

An Iowa Republican said that Romney was bringing about 125 onto the campus of Iowa State University and Brownback just over 100.  Tommy Thompson is bringing the third most, about 75.

What I don’t understand is why Brownback has the money [...]

Romney, Paul, and the road to Ames

2 August, 2007 (09:41) | Uncategorized | By: soren

So Mitt Romney has won a number of straw polls by packing them. Reporters get the joke and have stopped covering them, but the Romney campaign knows that it can put these victories on mail pieces and ads. Normally, the question is whether the damage that occurs over the bad press is worth the result. [...]

Cash on hand and Ames

17 July, 2007 (09:15) | Uncategorized | By: soren

In Q1, the refrain from the 2nd tier was that the only fundraising number that really matters is Q2 Cash on Hand. The reasoning for that was Ames. The amount of money that a campaign has right now limits the amount of money it can spend at Ames, and there’s a linear relationship between the [...]

Mitt’s 70 years Young Republicans

8 July, 2007 (23:36) | Uncategorized | By: soren

Update: Virginians for Fred Thompson has some pictures of geriatric Young Republicans, including a nice explanation of what actually happened at the straw poll.
The Mitt Romney campaign has usually been quick to announce straw poll results. I haven’t seen an announcement yet for the one at the Young Republican National Convention 2007. There have been [...]

Young Republican straw poll

8 July, 2007 (01:57) | Uncategorized | By: soren

First, I should say that there have been two major blog posts written about the problems with this. They allege that Mitt Romney bought another straw poll. With details. That said:

Romney
163

Thompson
103

Giuliani
37

Huckabee
14

Hunter
14

Paul
11

McCain
5

Off to Young Republican National Convention

5 July, 2007 (14:49) | Uncategorized | By: soren

I am off to the Young Republican National Convention in Miami. I will be blogging some of it on-site. Mitt Romney will be speaking, as will Duncan Hunter. There will be a bunch of other exciting events, including a straw poll. The last big Young Republican straw poll last year was 1 vote win by [...]

Romney campaign whines at meaningless straw poll

6 June, 2007 (21:03) | Uncategorized | By: soren

This morning, after Rudy Giuliani dropped out of the straw poll, a Romney staffer told Marc Ambinder:
"We shouldn’t be disqualified or criticized for their campaign strategy and tactics," a Romney adviser insisted to me this morning.

But after John McCain drops out because it will be meaningless, Romney declares victory:
"Our plan all along has been to [...]

Will Ames matter?

6 June, 2007 (13:11) | Uncategorized | By: soren

Well, Rudy Giuliani will not be at Ames. Neither will Fred Thompson. One has to wonder whether other campaigns will reconsider their commitments. Let’s look at what this all might mean. Here are some possibilities.
Ames will select the most important 2nd tier candidate
It is clear that the straw poll will not mean much at the [...]

Romney buying more straw polls?

23 April, 2007 (11:06) | Uncategorized | By: soren

Now, I’m no fan of straw polls. It is one thing if the voting universe is small. But it is not at many, and straw polls are usually arbitrary fundraising adventures for the hosts. And for the winners, they are a way of buying headlines. The Romney campaign has been touting their successes with the [...]

Thoughts on CPAC

4 March, 2007 (13:10) | Uncategorized | By: soren

Well, the CPAC results are in.
"The Big Winner" is Rudy Giuliani. First, of all, Rudy still has an "electability" issue. Can he win a primary? A lot of people are convinced that someone with his positions on social issues cannot win. The Giuliani campaign will tout this result to say, "we can win. Conservatives will [...]