Thoughts on Fred Thompson

I have been struggling to really articulate my thoughts on a Fred Thompson candidacy, but here’s a go. This was, to some extent, precipitated by a conversation yesterday afternoon, this post of Michael Turk, and Thompson’s interview with John Fund. First, there has been a push for a candidate because Read more…

Rudy on how he wins

"In a loud voice" that perhaps reporters weren’t supposed to hear, Rudy Giuliani says that the social conservatives will be split and that he will form a coalition of the remainder: In a voice loud enough to be overheard on the other side of the room, he outlined his view Read more…

What do the March polls say? What do they mean?

Almost all the big polls are now out, along with some important analysis. So let me dive right in.

There are clearly three tiers of candidates from the polls. The picture at the right from Gallup clearly points these tiers out. First is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. They have similar likability, and in recent weeks, it appears that Rudy has taken support from McCain in the polls. The second is Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Both of these candidates appear to have relatively high "unfavorables" and even large numbers of Republicans who do not want them to be the nominee. And the third tier is people who no one has heard of. These are Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, etc.

Now, these differ from the conventional wisdom in Washington that places John McCain first, Rudy Giuliani second, and Mitt Romney third. Another poll found that Romney is leading about Republican National Committee members. So there is a clear disconnect between the opinions of "insiders" and the opinions of the masses. What is going on and how do the various campaigns understand these polls?
(more…)