Merely an aggregation of a dispersed life online
Pollster.com has the results of a 16-state survey of 2-way and 3-way matchups between Giulaini, Clinton, and Bloomberg. First, the data: 3-way 2-way Bloomberg Effect State Giuliani Clinton Bloomberg Giuliani Clinton From G From H Alabama 46 39 11 53 41 -7 -2 California 40 45 10 44 49 -4 -4 Iowa 37 42 11 [...]
I have been interested in the whole "electability" question and general election matchups. I am fascinated by the numbers from the new Cook/RT poll. Clinton Obama All GOP Ind All GOP Ind Giuliani 0 +74 +4 0 +67 +7 Thompson 0 +78 +1 -7 +45 -13 Romney -7 +71 -8 -13 +46 -16 [...]
Datamar has a poll of the 2008 GOP Florida primary. Race42008′s HeavyM says, "who in the world is DataMar?" Well, from their website: Providing quality software solutions since 1981 Surveys & Data Intelligence Strategies Datamar Modular Accounting Solutions Sweet! I needed an … accounting system? For my polls. Right…. In addition, they used auto-dials, [...]
Another poll indicates that Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa. I think that this is probably right, and the RCP average suggests that this is sustained. I have suggested that Romney is running a fantastic campaign in Iowa and in general. It strikes me that this is soft though. Check out two other questions: 3. [...]
Hotline discusses the Des Moines Register’s new poll of Iowa likely caucusgoers. They say the numbers should be taken seriously, so I will. In this poll Mitt Romney gets 30% of the vote, John McCain gets 18%, and Rudy Giuliani gets 17%. I suspect that other polls will come out saying different things, but … [...]
Gallup says Bush is polling higher, but within the margin of error, of Congress. Can the Democrats sustain this level of poor performance in Congress?
I think David Frum nails it here: I wish somebody at the Reagan Library had said: "Ronald Reagan was a great leader and a great president because he addressed the problems of his time. But we have very different problems — and we need very different answers. Here are mine." Reagan really did have different [...]
Title says it all. Another way of stating it is that the most recent SurveyUSA poll that the Mitt Romney team is pushing is totally crack. Way more than 3% are undecided.
Ok, now I have argued that electability will matter in this election. And early polls only matter a little. But the new Diageo/Hotline poll, via Pollster.com, should terrify Republicans: Clinton Obama Edwards Rudy Giuliani +4 -9 -6 John McCain 0 -11 -11 That is, Rudy Giuliani is beating Clinton by 4%, and the rest [...]
First, of all, let me say that the recent ARG polls, strike me as a little weird. (I am suspicious of their likely voter model, especially in Iowa) My money is on these being outliers. Several things do occur to me though. First, the numbers: Republicans IA NH SC John McCain 26% 29% 36% Rudy [...]
