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Matt Dabrowski, a pollster and a reader, sent in a letter about what happened with the broken polling in New Hampshire Just yesterday, some major media polls showed Barack Obama with a 10-point lead over Hillary Clinton. But Clinton won the New Hampshire primary by at least 3%. At the same time, John McCain posted [...]

Core Favorability/Opposition Among All Voters Candidate Def. FOR Def. AGAINST Net Obama 29% 36% -7 McCain 22% 33% -11 Huckabee 21% 34% -13 Thompson 21% 34% -13 Edwards 23% 38% -15 Clinton 30% 47% -17 Giuliani 23% 42% -19 Romney 19% 47% -28 Paul 10% 48% -38 Bloomberg 5% 49% -44 Rasmussen has released another [...]

When citing bad news for your opponents, don’t use junk polls.

The LA Times reminds us the most important number in the recent NH polls: But that’s not the most important data in this survey. What’s most important is the little-noticed numbers revealing that with slightly less than two months to go before the voting, 48% of Democrats and fully 60% of Republicans remain undecided. Now [...]

Last week at Blog World Expo, a fascinating discussion broke out. Jerome Armstrong from MyDD and Markos from DailyKos, among other lefties, argued that Iraq was going to be a driving issue. They, furthermore, argued that success wouldn’t matter, because the failure was the initial decision, and Americans will stop paying attention The righties, Hugh [...]

I normally don’t write about polls, especially ARG polls. But I was struck by two things in the most recent batch. The first one, which lots of people have talked about is Mitt Romney’s rise in South Carolina. That’s new. Is it real? Is it TV moving numbers? But the second thing is Fred Thompson. [...]

Alan Fram AP’s story about Rudy Giuliani and conservatives fundamentally misses the point. He says, "Giuliani’s Conservative Vote Tenuous." That would be true, if it turned out that his lead in polls was based on the vote of conservatives who don’t know what he thinks on issues. It seems that the important analysis of his [...]

SurveyUSA says we are winning nearly every matchup. Interesting… Good news.

Candidate % Romney 29 Thompson 18 Huckabee 12 Giuliani 11 McCain 7 I normally don’t like to write on polls, but I think that this one tells us a lot about the future of the GOP race in Iowa. David Yepsen comments here. I am going to write this as a two-parter. The first part [...]

Candidate % Romney 29 Thompson 18 Huckabee 12 Giuliani 11 McCain 7 I normally don’t like to write on polls, but I think that this one tells us a lot about the future of the GOP race in Iowa. David Yepsen comments here. I am going to write this as a two-parter. The first part [...]