End of Rudy’s Florida strategy?

A bomb just dropped in the Presidential race. Rudy Giuliani was going to win the nomination by placing or showing in , but not winning, a bunch of early primary states. And then he was going to win in Florida. But a new Rasmussen poll, if verified with more polling, would explode that theory:

Rasmussen GOP Florida Primary

  • Mike Huckabee 27% (9%)
  • Mitt Romney 23% (19%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 19% (27%)
  • Fred Thompson 9% (16%)
  • John McCain 6% (10%)
  • Ron Paul 4% (5%)
  • Some other candidate 2% (2%)

If he is in third and Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney have momentum in other states, it is hard to see how Rudy wins Florida. It seems highly unlikely that 5 losses in a row would end in a Tsunami Tuesday victory.

The next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting.

Time for Doolittle to retire

Jon Fleischman has some polling data on John Doolittle re-election. They are bad:

  • In a one-on-one match up, if the election were held today, Democrat Charlie Brown gets 51% of the vote to Congressman Doolittle’s 31%.
  • Those surveyed were also asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doolittle.  Respondents came back with 28% favorable and 56% unfavorable.
  • In the survey, GOP primary voters were asked whether Congressman Doolittle should run for another term.  33% of those asked said he should.  A staggering 50% said that the Congressman should either resign or should not run again.

Of course, the Congressman’s staff are getting subpoenaed to testify to a grand jury on Abramoff:

Two of GOP Rep. John Doolittle’s top aides have been subpoenaed to testify before a federal grand jury investigating ties between Doolittle, his wife and jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

The grand jury subpoenas from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia were issued to Chief of Staff Ron Rogers and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Blankenburg. They were announced on the House floor as Congress returned from its August recess Tuesday after the aides informed the House speaker about the subpoenas, as required under House rules.

Tom Cole at the NRCC has already thrown Doolittle under the bus. Perhaps it is time for him to get out?

I think that it is additionally significant that Jon is writing this and pitching a candidate, Assemblyman Ted Gaines. Jon is a leader in the conservative wing of the party. The fact that he is moving this suggests that conservatives are ready and willing to attack Doolittle