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I have been interested in the whole "electability" question and general election matchups. I am fascinated by the numbers from the new Cook/RT poll.   Clinton Obama    All GOP Ind All GOP Ind Giuliani 0 +74 +4 0 +67 +7 Thompson 0 +78 +1 -7 +45 -13 Romney -7 +71 -8 -13 +46 -16 [...]

Ok, now I have argued that electability will matter in this election. And early polls only matter a little. But the new Diageo/Hotline poll, via Pollster.com, should terrify Republicans:   Clinton Obama Edwards Rudy Giuliani +4 -9 -6 John McCain 0 -11 -11 That is, Rudy Giuliani is beating Clinton by 4%, and the rest [...]

Mitt Romney opened his mouth and inserted his foot again. However, it turns out that he was replacing Hillary Clinton’s words with his foot, so it may well be a trade up. You see, back in 1998 he said that Hillary Clinton was "very much right" that "it takes a village:" Hillary Clinton is very [...]

Really? I never… Indeed. Hillary says one thing in fundraisers and another in the Senate.

That’s the number from the Hotline. They note that, for her, that isn’t really that impressive. Furthermore, this is a primary and general number. As the Romney memo notes, this number is a little bunk. The NYT’s Caucus points out results for Joe Biden, $3m, and Bill Richardson, $6m. They also give us a bit [...]

Last week Rasmussen released polls on 2008 head-to-head match-ups between various Republicans and various Democrats. The Brownback campaign touted one that showed Brownback only 5% behind Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Rasmussen notes: Brownback is an unknown to 43%, and viewed favorably by only 19%. Just a couple weeks after his announcement, the percentage [...]

Today the Blogosphere is buzzing with the news that people are advising Hillary Clinton not to run for President. Some discuss her future as the Democrat’s Senate Leader. I have written earlier about some of this here and here. Why is she considering this? There are several theories: She is too divisive. Her candidacy would [...]

What is this about? Ezra Klein writes about this in the LATimes. The answer is simple. It is about turning her into the national boss of the Democratic Party. She would use her fundraising network to raise money for candidates and pick candidates in primaries. She would use her power in the Senate to control [...]

H/T to Greg Mankiw for the analysis. The GOP markets at Tradesport only have McCain and Giuiliani, so I don’t think that they are very meaningful. But Mankiw points out what is interesting about the Democrat ones: [W]e can obtain for each candidate the conditional probability–the probability that the person will win the general election [...]

GOP side: John McCain: 24% Rudy Giuiliani and Condi Rice: 20% Newt Gingrich: 10% Dem side: Hillary Clinton and John Edwards tied at 34% Vilsack third. Upshot: McCain is still the front runner. And Hillary just can’t go that high, we think.