Yepsen on the Iowa caucus

The Politico and GWU sponsored a panel with local reporters from New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada.

David Yepsen had a couple of interesting things to say. He asserted that GOP turnout was likely to be about 90k, based on recent polling. In that context, he mentioned that there are 20k Mormons in Iowa. The point is merely that a highly-motivated group of people can have an outsized impact in the caucuses.

Another interesting line was that Rudy Giuliani’s campaign was based on the assumption of high national numbers. However, with the Shag Fund scandal, Yepsen said that "the air appears to be coming out of that balloon." I still believe that that fundamentally changes the rationale for all the other candidates in Iowa.