There have been whispers for a while that there could be a December primary. Roger Simon now argues that it is increasingly likely that there could be a December 11th primary in New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, that seems to favor Hillary Clinton. She is up some silly amount in NH. She is +20 in NH. A little momentum going into Iowa can’t hurt. This reduces the odds of a successful Barack Obama resurgence.

On the GOP side, this opens up the game much, much more. Mitt Romney was hoping to boomerang with Iowa. But, in RCP, Romney is only +4%. While his organization is either the best or second best. (behind John McCain)  Who finishes first may well come down to a crap shoot between McCain, Romney, and Rudy Giuliani.  It seems unlikely that Fred Thompson will be a first-tier competitor in New Hampshire. That means that he will be competing with, perhaps, Mike Huckabee for fourth.

Can Huckabee survive a 5th place finish? Could Thompson survive a 4th?

I have recommended that McCain and Giuliani skip Iowa. Is there similar advice for Thompson and Huckabee in New Hampshire?

What happens to Romney if he were to come in 2nd or 3rd?

If New Hampshire is first, do independents vote for Democrats? Less likely if Iowa comes first, and Clinton wins it. Then Obama might well drop out.


azamatterofact · October 17, 2007 at 12:29 AM

In the interest of full disclosure, I volunteer for the McCain campaign in NH. Yes, McCain has a strong effort in NH. I think, or at least want to believe that we are going to win NH. I have made at least 500 phone calls and have probably talked to 100 people. Honestly, no candidate is polling at over 2% aside from “Undecided” who will win 75% of the vote at this point.

I am curious as to your recommendation that Guiliani and McCain skip Iowa. I know that McCain is only polling at 7% in Iowa but I also remember that at this point 4 years ago we were all talking about President Dean.

If you care to would you mind repeating your ideas behind McCain skipping Iowa?

Paul8148 · October 17, 2007 at 2:48 AM

The thing is will the Dems take away the Deglates since it will break the rules to move to 07. This is all Carl Levin doing by threating to put a Dem Caucus on Jan 8 in Michigan. He either whats the dems to take the NH Deglates away if they break the rules, or if the DNC does not he will use it to get his National Primany he wants.

eye · October 17, 2007 at 5:15 AM

Paul8148, and Bill Gardner cares what Carl Levin would do why?

azamatteroffact, my comments on McCain and Iowa are here

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