http://sorendayton.com/2007/07/02/more-on-the-2008-environment-iraq-and-the-economy/ Merely an aggregation of a dispersed life online Fri, 27 Nov 2009 06:08:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://sorendayton.com/2007/07/02/more-on-the-2008-environment-iraq-and-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-1026 eyeon08.com » More housing mess Tue, 21 Aug 2007 16:18:01 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/07/02/more-on-the-2008-environment-iraq-and-the-economy/#comment-1026 [...] The top-line story is that July foreclosures are 9% above June. Recall several facts. First, foreclosures come about 6 months after default. And if ARM resets are a predictor of future default and foreclosure rates, the amount of subprime loans reseting in January and February (these numbers) will double by the end of this year. And these levels of default and foreclosure will stay pretty solid through the end of 2008. Just to be clear, some analysis from John Mauldin: Research by RBS Greenwich (assuming I read it right) suggests that 20-23% of the subprime loans made in 2006 will go into default and foreclosure. I talked with one head of a mortgage brokerage business in California this week (he has over 800 brokers who work for him) and he thinks that home values in certain areas he services could drop by as much as 50%. [...] [...] The top-line story is that July foreclosures are 9% above June. Recall several facts. First, foreclosures come about 6 months after default. And if ARM resets are a predictor of future default and foreclosure rates, the amount of subprime loans reseting in January and February (these numbers) will double by the end of this year. And these levels of default and foreclosure will stay pretty solid through the end of 2008. Just to be clear, some analysis from John Mauldin: Research by RBS Greenwich (assuming I read it right) suggests that 20-23% of the subprime loans made in 2006 will go into default and foreclosure. I talked with one head of a mortgage brokerage business in California this week (he has over 800 brokers who work for him) and he thinks that home values in certain areas he services could drop by as much as 50%. [...]

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