More on the 2008 environment: Iraq and the economy

This morning, Novak said:

It is difficult to exaggerate the pessimism about the immediate political future voiced by Republicans in Congress when not on the record. With an unpopular president waging an unpopular war, they foresee electoral catastrophe in 2008, with Democratic gains in both the House and Senate and Hillary Clinton in the White House.

There are a bunch of reasons for this. But let’s put the housing stuff in context. We are at the very beginning of the crunch. Here is when the adjustable rate mortgages reset:


In other words, over the next several months there will be a sharp increase in the number for foreclosures and it will not calm down until late 2008 or early 2009.

My expectation is that this will be the largest general election issue in swing states out west and in Florida. And it will emphasize the importance of issues linked to economic insecurity like health care. Especially if we begin to pull out of Iraq in September. After all both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama legislative staffers admit that their plans would result in 100k military in Iraq for the medium term.