New American Research Poll. This one is interesting because it includes likely voters instead of adults or Republican adults. I want cross-tabs on this.

Republicans National
Giuliani 34%
McCain 30%
Gingrich 12%
Undecided 9%
Romney 7%
Brownback 1%
Gilmore 1%
Hagel 1%
Huckabee 1%
Pataki 1%
Paul 1%
Tancredo 1%
Thompson 1%


Mark · March 8, 2007 at 5:47 PM

Is anyone else surprised at Newt’s number’s given he’s not a candidate. As well, if this i s most likely voters, it seem interesting that Newt’s numbers are the same as Real Clear politics numbers for GOP primary voters?

Mark · March 8, 2007 at 5:49 PM

ARG site says this:
The following results are based on nationwide samples of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted March 2-5, 2007. The theoretical margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.

Looks like this is still a poll of identified D’s and R’s

eye · March 8, 2007 at 6:17 PM

I think that we agree. I meant likely primary voters, not just IDd Ds and Rs.

Mark · March 8, 2007 at 10:41 PM

At this point in the election cycle in 2000 Bush was at 44%. Rudy’s 10 points lower. Explanation?

eye · March 8, 2007 at 10:50 PM

What am I supposed to be explaining?

Mark · March 9, 2007 at 12:41 PM

Just wondering what your thoughts are on Giuliani the front runner having less of a comand of the field at this point than Bush did in 2000. Alot of pundits have made a point of this. I’m not sure what to make of it myself.

eye · March 9, 2007 at 2:27 PM

I believe that there is a lot of softness in Giuliani’s numbers. But, at the same time, he is a hero.

I think that:

(1) we don’t know whether 9/11 trumps social issues. My hunch, for some GOP activists — about a quarter? –, it does.

(2) is the image of Giuliani totally fixed? Haven’t decided yet.

As I have said, campaigns are experiments.

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