Mitt Romney’s announcement of former Speaker Denny Hastert’s support points out something that I’ve been thinking for a while. Mitt Romney is running an insider campaign in Washington, and this has a bunch of interesting implications. This is actually part of a series in which I’ll look at how the campaigns are playing out in each of the states (for which I have good information)

First, let’s look at the dynamics. DC is very conventional-wisdom and money oriented. Therefore, DC money goes to the frontrunner or frontrunners. In addition, I would argue that McCain’s positions — and ways of expressing them — on campaign finance reform, pork, and ethics reform have all significantly alienated a number of lobbyists and (self-imagined?) kingmakers in Washington. In general, Washington could well be more anti-McCain than the rest of the country. If for that alone, the list of Lobbyists for Mitt will be much longer than Lobbyists for McCain. Furthermore, one of Romney’s most important advisors is DC-based super-lobbyist Ron Kaufman, who is also the National Committeeman of the Massachusetts. A friend (and reporter) recently told me that "Ron K. could kill almost any man with his thumbs". I agree.

Now look at Romney’s House people. First, there is Hastert, who, Matt Lewis has pointed out, has hated McCain for a long time. Romney will acquire a lot of support for that reason. Second, he has Jim McCrery, the ranking member on the Ways and Means Committee. In that position, McCrery is the House GOP’s Deputy Earmarker-in-Chief, behind Jerry Lewis. In general, many of the people on the "powerful" (= good fundraising and lobbyist contact) exclusive committees will end up with Romney. I would use a similar analysis with Rep. Dave Camp. In addition, Camp has been around Michigan long enough to have strong links to the Romney family. Other significant pickups have personal connections of some sort such as Tom Feeney (was Jeb Bush’s 1994 running mate and a significant part of the Jeb Bush operation appears to be lining up with Romney) and Buck McKeon (a fellow Mormon).

I expect that McCain will find many of his Congressional allies in the fiscally-conservative part of the Republican Study Committee and some Republican Main Street members. Arizonan RSCers John Shadegg and Jeff Flake, who Boehner recently kicked off a presitigious committee for "bad behavior", are likely more typical of the support McCain is likely to get. While they are rarely called mavericks, they share McCain’s tendency to stick fingers in the eyes of leadership (Boehner, Hastert, etc.) for ideological reasons. And on a number of fiscal issues they have worked quite closely with McCain. I also expect that McCain will get significant support from Main Street, whose members McCain has worked with in the past also.

One of the most interesting questions will be how the social conservatives break. Senator Brownback takes a leading role in the Senate’s Values Action Team and his House allies may just support him if they don’t believe Romney.


3 Comments

sbbarnes · January 24, 2007 at 9:02 AM

Why mention that Buck McKeon is a fellow Mormon? So is Jeff Flake. It sounds like your insinuating the McKeon supports Romney because they share the same religion, but Flake who you don’t mention is a Mormon will support McCain because he is a maverick like McCain. If McKeon’s religion is relevant, which I don’t think it is, why not be consistent.

eye · January 24, 2007 at 9:27 AM

Because ethnic and religious groups tend to move together. Hispanics often vote for Hispanics. Blacks often vote for Blacks. People from the same region or state tend to vote together too.

I predict that most Mormons will vote for Romney. That’s not unreasonable.

As you point out, there are some Mormons who are supporting McCain. Jeff Flake, who is from Arizona and who works closely with McCain. They have a relationship.

Looking at the other Mormons who are publicly for McCain, I see Oregon Senator Gordon Smith. He has re-election concerns. Identifying with McCain helps him in his swing state. Identifying with Romney probably wouldn’t because people would write about his religion, which probably is not a winner in Oregon.

Then there is Utah Governor John Huntsman. I hear two stories. One is that he genuinely doesn’t like Romney. Another is that Romney couldn’t promote him, so he gets on early with McCain to get a Cabinet spot. I don’t know.

But in general, I expect that Romney will get a large majority of the Mormon members. Not unreasonable, especially considering that so many leading Mormons, including McKeon and Romney are alums of BYU. I predict that George Allen would have used the substantial UVa network to recruit his alums too.

Another Big Week of Recruiting for Mitt Romney « Idahoans for Mitt Romney in 2008 · January 28, 2007 at 10:39 PM

[…] Furthermore, according to http://www.eyeon08.com, “Romney’s playing DC … well! […]

Comments are closed.

Related Posts

European Parliament

The timing of TTIP

I wrote a piece on the current politics of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the EU-US trade deal, with a colleague of mine from Hill+Knowlton’s Belgium office. It is mostly just a review. Read more…

Career

I joined Hill+Knowlton Strategies

POLITICO Influence reports on my new job: ALSO FIRST IN PI… Hill+Knowlton Strategies added Soren Dayton, an experienced digital communications and public affairs strategist, as a senior vice president. Dayton comes from Prism Public Affairs Read more…

India

On net neutrality

The net neutrality debate has picked up in India based on “zero-rating” or the idea that a service could be provided where the user didn’t pay for the data. I have long wondered how organizations Read more…